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- #利用蒙特卡洛模拟赌徒概率
- '''
- sum : 一次模拟中累计的资金数，刚开始模拟时则是启动资金数
- bet:每次下注的金额（赢了则获得同等数量金额，输了则失去同等数量金额）
- target:期望账户累计到多少金额就不玩了，默认账户为0就不玩了
- trials: 模拟的次数
- 期望结果：
- 在模拟次数中，胜出的比例是多少。
- 每次胜出，用了多少次，平均数／最大数／最小数／中位数如何
- '''
- import random
- import optparse
- def gambler(sum_start,bet,target,trials):
- win_trial = []
- for t in range(trials):
- _sum = sum_start
- times = 0
- times_win = 0
- while _sum >0 and _sum <target:
- result = bet if random.randrange(0,2)>0 else -bet
- _sum += result
- times+=1
- if _sum >= target:
- win_trial.append((times,_sum))
- print('total {0} times win, ratio is {1}'.format(len(win_trial),len(win_trial)/trials))
- l1 = [t for t,s in win_trial] #获得所有胜出模拟中，投注的次数
- average = int(sum(l1)/len(l1)) #获得平均胜出投注次数
- max_num = max(l1)
- min_num = min(l1)
- mid_num = l1[int(len(l1)/2)] if (len(l1)/2)%2 == 1 else (l1[int(len(l1)/2)] + l1[int(len(l1)/2)-1])/2
- print('average is {0}, max_num is {1},min_num is {2},mid_num is {3}'.format(average,max_num,min_num,mid_num))
- def main():
- parser = optparse.OptionParser("""\
- usage: %prog [options] infile outfile
- simulate the gamble result: how many times you will win, what's the possibility,
- average, max, min & middle number of bets""")
- parser.add_option("-b", "--bet", dest="bet",
- help=("input the sum_start,bet,target,trials"))
- opts, args = parser.parse_args()
- sum_start,bet,target,trials = opts.bet.split(',')
- gambler(int(sum_start),int(bet),int(target),int(trials))
- main()
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